More foreign affairs in a crazy, mixed-up world

Election update: Romania's right-wing nationalist nearly sweeps first round; Australian Labour Party swamps opposition

The “Trump effect” is making itself known in elections round the world, if not always in the same way. Results from Romania and Australia are in—with MAGA hats on display in Bucharest, but no similar sightings in Canberra.

First, the head-spinning results of Sunday’s Romanian presidential election have already had major domestic repercussions. Not only did far-right-wing candidate George Simion garner almost 41 percent of the popular vote—nearly as many votes as the second- and third-place finishers combined, in fact—but the country’s Social Democratic prime minister was forced to resign in humiliation, blamed for the poor showing of his now-former coalition’s candidate, who ran a distant third.

Firebrand George Simion, who may soon become Romania’s next president. Public domain photo

The country’s complicated political situation, already in turmoil since the Constitutional Court annulled the original November 2024 election results over strong suspicions of Russian meddling and fraudulent TikTok campaign accounts, has now descended into near chaos.

The governing coalition’s two remaining parties—the National Liberals (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania—now control less than one-third of the Parliament’s seats, and are not likely to figure in any new government, even if they patch things up with their rivals and former allies, the far-larger Social Democrats (PSD).

Indeed, Bolojan, a longtime Liberal politician who has headed the PNL only since December, will certainly struggle to find a new prime minister capable of forging anything near a majority of Parliamentary deputies in the short time left before the new president is selected May 18 and sworn in sometime in June. After that, he will return to his Senate duties and watch as a bystander.

Simion, who had campaigned enthusiastically as an ally of U.S. president Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, becomes the clear front-runner in the May 18 runoff election with Bucharest mayor Nicursor Dan, an independent and former third-party member of the country’s Parliament, who surged ahead of ruling coalition favorite Crin Antonescu with just over 20 percent of the first-round vote.

Bucharest mayor Nicursor Dan, a distant second in first round, remains optimistic. Public domain photo

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the longtime Social Democratic leader who had once hoped to become president himself—but came in fifth in the since-cancelled November 2024 election—was then repudiated by his coalition’s second-largest party, the National Liberals (PNL), and resigned immediately. He was blamed for not motivating enough PSD voters to back Antonescu in the rescheduled election.

Ciolacu’s replacement will now be named by the country’s acting president, Ilie Bolojan, the Senate president who has been in office himself for less than three months after succeeding Klaus Iohannis, who finally resigned in mid-February—two months after his term was supposed to end.

Simion’s Alliance for the Union of Romanianians (AUR), once ridiculed as the nationalist clowns of this Balkan nation, are now the Parliament’s second-largest contingent in the lower Chamber, and third largest in the Senate, after the December 2024 national elections (which were completed and certified). Depending on the May 18 outcome, the AUR could soon vault into near-complete control of the government—with the powerful presidency in hand and a belligerent opposition voice in a fragmented Parliament—although so far, a role in a coalition government remains a pipe dream.

According to a Politico report, “Many of AUR’s policy positions match those of Trump’s MAGA movement, from social conservatism—it bills itself as pro-Christian and pro-family—to stopping military aid to Ukraine,” positions supported by few others in national circles except, perhaps, the small SOS Romania party, which openly supports Russia. Its leader, Diana Sosoaca, was also banned from running in the latest president election—and may prove to be too radical a partner for AUR.

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So the stalemate may continue for weeks and months, depending on who wins pn May 18. If Dan wins the runoff—a long shot, but theoretically possible—he may be able to patch together a coalition including his own former USR party, now led by small-town mayor Elena Lasconi.

Lasconi came in second in November, with about 19 percent of the total, and some believed she might win the second round, had it been held. But her popularity faded quickly; in the May 4 election, she scored about 3 percent of the vote, less than one-fifth of her previous share.

Simion, 38, has emerged as a firebrand since forming his new party in 2019. He has already been banned from entering Ukraine over inflammatory remarks, and his announced policies have almost completely alienated their common neighbor, Moldova, which also bans him—a Romanian-speaking former Soviet state which many Simion and others still hope to draw into a grand “union” with Romania.

[See “George Simion hard right winner,” May 4, https://www.politico.eu/article/george-simion-hard-right-winner-romanias-presidential-election-first-round/ ; “Romanian prime minister resigns,” May 5, https://www.euronews.com/2025/05/05/romanian-prime-minister-resigns-amid-ruling-coalitions-post-presidential-election-fallout .]

Right-wing leaders across Europe were quick to applaud Simion’s strong showing on Sunday. Simion is an outspoken admirer of conservative Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with whom he would most likely reinforce the right-of-center viewpoint within the EU. And while Simion has not so so far proposed taking Romania out of the EU, he has pledged ominously to ignore EU laws which do not meet with his approval.

And his travels abroad may be somewhat limited, at least to two of his nearest neighbors. According to a report by Radio Free Europe, Simion “was banned in 2024 from entering Ukraine for three years for what Kyiv called ‘systematic anti-Ukrainian activities,’ while Moldova has called him a national security threat and barred him from entering that country, as well. [See “Ultranationalist Simion to face moderate Dan,” May 5, https://www.rferl.org/a/romania-presidential-election-simion-dan-antenescu-georgescu/33404534.html .]

Romania has been among Ukraine’s strongest supporters since its war with Russia began in 2022. Romania has also been a stalwart member of NATO, but the implications of a Simion presidency are not clear for NATO consensus. It might well point Romania toward closer alignment with the policies of hard-line authoritarian leader Viktor Orban of Hungary, another Trump ally.

Simion’s strong showing almost doubled the November first-place finish by obscure professor Calin Georgescu, whose somewhat similar views earned him the vote of 23 percent of Romanians in that first round annulled by the Constitutional Court. Georgescu, however, was strongly linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin—and it was this suspicious connection which ultimately sank his candidacy in any rescheduled election, and leading to Simion’s far stronger showing: essentially combining Georgescu’s votes with his own base (15 percent).

Georgescu was eventually disqualified from taking part in the May 4 rerun by the same Court—based in large part on top-secret intelligence documents declassified by former President Iohannis, and reportedly documenting Russian interference in social media to bolster Georgescu’s candidacy.

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As a “reformed” Foreign Service Officer—I walked away from the State Department in 1997—I keep my eyes out for unusual and outrageous events occurring in countries of interest to the United States, particularly those I have served in or visited. This occasionally includes analyses of U.S. actions affecting those countries, whether wise or effective—or neither—and in some cases, simply astounding.

If close identification with Trump’s agenda and other facets of U.S. MAGA politics seem to be propelling Simion forward in Romania, the opposite seems to be true halfway around the world in Australia, which held its own parliamentary elections last week. (I have neither served in nor visited either country—at least not yet.)

Mirroring the results days earlier in Canada, Australians rewarded Anthony Albanese and his center-left Labour Party with a second term—and an enhanced majority—over the opposition Liberal National coalition, led by hard-line conservative Peter Dutton—who, like Canada’s opposition leader, proceeded to lose his own seat in Parliament after more than 20 years in Canberra. As recently as January, Albanese seemed headed for a dismal defeat.

And while Trump policies were not an explicit issue in the campaign, the country’s voters were clearly anxious about the “global turmoil unleashed by his administration,” according to the New York Times.

Australia’s Anthony Albanese celebrates his reelection. Photo courtesy CNN

As the Times account put it, “Neither camp mentioned Mr. Trump by name on Saturday night but the nods to his influence were clear. In his victory speech, an emotional Mr. Albanese said Australians had chosen ‘to face global challenges the Australian way. … We do not need to beg, or borrow, or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration overseas.’” [Italics are the author’s.]

[See “Australia’s Prime Minister Clinches Second Term in Remarkable Comeback,” May 2, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/world/asia/australia-prime-minister-election.html?algo=combo_clicks_decay_6_lda_unique_80_diversified&block=3&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20250503&fellback=false&imp_id=2924134972032418&instance_id=153842&nl=for-you&nlid=66543734&pool=channel-replacement-ls&rank=6&regi_id=66543734&req_id=3187954905769771&segment_id=197261&surface=for-you-email-channelless&user_id=9e758cd9bf637abc0a14a155f872e540&variant=0_channel_translated_pool_popularity_pers .]

Peter Dutton: Once “Australia’s Trump,” now down and out in Canberra. Public domain photo

The BBC report on the election outcome blamed Dutton’s defeat, in part, on his “awkward and inconsistent campaign that did not do enough to reassure voters ... But there is no mistaking the big part played by what some have called the ‘Trump effect.’ Dutton, whether he liked it or not, was a man who many saw as Australia's Trump— but as it turns out Australians do not appear to want that.” [See “He wanted to be Australia’s PM,” May 3, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxgwnj8v5eo .]

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What Albanese’s reelection may mean for Australian foreign affairs, and for future relations between the longtime allies—or for the tripartite 1951 ANZUS security treaty, including New Zealand—is not clear. Nothing is predicted to change in the short term, although the conservative-led governments in the United States and in New Zealand will likely pursue goals that differ in key ways from Albanese’s vision.

It is worth noting that during the recent Biden administration, Australia touted its longstanding relationship with the United States as productive and beneficial. In an effusive posting on its U.S. embassy website, for instance, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade praised the relationship as “unique in its breadth, depth and length, and is characterised by genuine cultural affinity and a spirit of collaboration.

The two countries’ contemporary relationship encompasses many shared fields of endeavour; including defence and security cooperation, extensive trade and investment links creating jobs for Australians and Americans, cultural exchanges, sporting rivalry, education participation, research and development, and tourism.

[See “Australia and the United States,” https://usa.embassy.gov.au/australia-and-united-states .]

The website goes on to describe “strong formal structures of cooperation between Australia and the United States spanning foreign policy, defence and security, intelligence, development, energy, environment, education, law, trade and investment. The Australia-United States Alliance and the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) are central to the bilateral relationship, which also benefits from widespread collaboration across government, academia, and business.”

Bilateral trade may soon become a major sticking point. Australia has recently enjoyed a significant—if perhaps temporary—trade surplus with the United States. According to a recent report by the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), “In January 2025, the United States exported $2.39B and imported $4.58B from Australia, resulting in a negative trade balance of $2.19B.” [See https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/usa/partner/aus .]

Under terms of AUSFTA, enacted in 2005, no tariffs are imposed on U.S. exports to Australia. But the Trump adminstration recently imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff on all goods imported from Australia, after Trump specifically targeted surging imports of Australian beef. In early April, Albanese condemned that Trump tariff as “not the act of a friend,” according to a Reuters report. But for the moment, at least, he ruled out imposing reciprocal tariffs against the United States.

For his part, Albanese maintains a positive public attitide toward the United States. Two days after his reelection, he told Reuters that he had “warm talks” with President Trump in a congratulatory telephone call, and looks forward to meeting with Trump soon. [See “Australia’s reelected PM Albanese says he had ‘warm talks,’” May 5, https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-calls-re-elected-australian-pm-albanese-friendly-2025-05-05/ .]

But his government’s once-rosy characterization of U.S.-Australian trade relations, at least, may well undergo a shift in tone if the bilateral relationship—especially the AUSFTA—wavers, or begins to suffer during Trump’s new trade war.

Next time: More foreign affairs in a crazy, mixed-up world